SNGspot

 

Many times, the cards you hold are irrelevant. Winning a hand is usually determined by what your opponent holds or more aptly what they do NOT hold.  If the flop comes down with As 9h 5c, it's basically Ace rags rainbow.  As long your opponent does not hold AA-99, Ax, A9, 95, 55 or any combination of a 2, 3 or 4 that would give him a straight draw, you can take this pot regardless you have poker's worst hand, 72off, based on your betting.  If you are using POKER-EDGE you have their historical VP$IP (Voluntarily Put $ Into Pot) and the lower the VP, the narrower will be their starting hand range they will enter a pot with.  To illustrate, lets say you were in the BB (Big Blind) in a .50/$1.00 NLHE cash game.  All players fold, the button limps in with a min-bet, SB folds.  Your opponent has a VP of 20% and a PFR (PreFlop Raise) of 9% (as shown in your POKER-EDGE stat display box on this player).  This tells you that he has something he would like to see the flop with, he is not betting for value by raising the pot up, he most likely does not have pocket Kings through Tens and could be slow playing pocket Aces but it is doubtful.  The reason he would not have any of these holdings as they are all top hands and being on the button, the correct play would be to raise 3xbb as a pfr.  It would mask what he holds as the standard pfr is 3xbb and it is common for the button to make such a bet regardless of what he holds.  The button is one of the best seats to steal from as you know what everyone acting before you has done already and can decide what you want to do armed with this information.  If he has Jacks or lower, you will often see a 4x or 5x bet at this point in the hand as outlined.  He don't want you to run in with a free or cheap flop, get lucky in the flop and take him down on a big pot later with a hidden powerhouse hand.  If he had Aces he should bet 2x or 3xbb from the button.  The former hoping you would push back with a raise and the latter to simply conceal his holding with a standard positional bet normally expected from a button player.  Slow play of aces from the button is almost insane as you could easily flop any junk to match your junk holding and crack his aces.  Early position some will slow play aces, hope for a following player to act and raise so they may call or re-raise either masking their hand power or hoping to build a bigger pot.  The button just limped in.  It's the two of you heads up.  Based on his stats you can figure he doesn't hold any of the mentioned hands.  He may limp in from this best position at the table with a little wider range than he normally plays from other positions.  So he is most likely holding a small to middle pair, overcards, suited Ace or suited overcards, perhaps a suited connector like 9T or JT.    These are also known as marginal drawing hands.  Most likely he does not hold AK suited or off suit.  Again, slow play of AK is ridiculous and you want to get rid of competition with a pre flop raise when players limp in or it's checked to you with AK.  You also want to know how strong you really are with any of those top hands mentioned except for the Aces or Kings so you would also raise from button to see if the blinds are strong and push back.  You can figure with a limp in he's on the range of marginal draw hands outlined.

 

You check your option and take a "free flop" or you can raise from the BB and steal the SB and the buttons limp in bet if he folds, calls or raises.  If you are holding 72o you may as well check and take the free flop  OR  you can raise and set up future street bluff play for a nice little pot to steal.  For this particular action, we are looking to build a pot to steal.  Bet $2 which is a min-raise.  Betting $3 may just force them to fold a weak marginal drawing hand.  We don't even have a marginal draw hand to play with but that has no meaning at this point.  Your opponent also has absolutely NO clue what you hold.  He only knows you are stuck in the blind.  Another important stat to look at when deciding whether to bluff/steal from an opponent is his FLcSDc statistic.  (Flop see, Showdown see percentage).  Again, this is a stat tracked by POKER-EDGE so you don't have to try and remember everything your opponents do.  The LOWER this statistic the greater is the opponents propensity to FOLD to a missed flop or holding a weak hand.  If this stat is 23% or less you have a much greater chance of bluffing this player off his hand no matter what you have as long as he is NOT holding a hand that HIT or is strong on its own as in AA or any pocket pair that is higher than the high card on the board.  Post flop you are first to act in the BB since the SB folded.  You are HU with the button that limped in then called.  Since he called, you know he is holding a marginal draw hand or small to mid pair.  You hold 72o, the flop is As 9h 5c.  There is $4 in the pot (less rake) with a BB of $1 stakes.  Since the opponent only called you could check and see what they do.  But you made the move, you read his stats and decided to setup a pot to bluff steal away.  If you look at subsequent street action stats for your opponent in POKER-EDGE you will see his AF (Agression Factor) is weaker on later streets.  You can attempt to take the pot on the flop or bet with the plan to take it on the Turn.  But be warned, waiting another street also gives the opponent an opportunity to improve their hand.  Without hesitation bet $3 and watch your opponent.  If they take a LONG time then call or raise, FOLD.  Online players typically "over act" for drama to make it seem like they are weak & confused about what to do.  It normally means they have a monster.  Either already holding Aces, an A9 or 99 in this particular case.  If they "Insta call" rapidly calling your bet without any hesitation, it usually means they hit the flop and no thought is needed.  Often they hit the ace in a board like this and may have AQ-AT for this type player or have a open end straight draw from the flop.  For an insta-call you would then check the turn and fold to any bet they make.  IF this happens, make sure you have a hand the next time you enter a pot or wait several rounds before attempting another bluff/steal as good players will take note of your action or lack of it here in this hand and know you tried to make a move on the pot.  MOST of the time, the flop will NOT help.  Just as hard as it is for YOU to hit your flop, it is likewise the same odds for them to hit what they need.  Betting out $3 into a $4 pot represents you hit the flop or don't even need it, that you are betting low for value and want them to call your bet making it affordable so YOU can win more of their money.  That is because this is the way you are SUPPOSED to bet when you have a hand and the flop helps your or you don't need it.  For a bluff to succeed it must be believable.  If you have not been caught bluffing and have not been playing too loose or in too many pots, this is the time to enact a setup for a bluff steal of a pot.  So you make them believe you have them beat with your bet pattern.  The pre-flop raise and now the pot bet.  Some players will call this bet if they caught part of the flop.  If you are called, the next street you would fire another round at the pot and attempt to take it.  There would be $10 in the pot less rake so IF this player had called you to the turn, now is when you bet the pot or overbet it slightly.  The pot will probably be 8 or 9 dollars and change.  Bet $10 on the turn and your opponent SHOULD fold.  Since he did not raise on the flop, it is most probable he does NOT hold an ace and might be slow playing a set of 9's or 5's by just calling.  However, if the turn is another ace and you bet hard with the $10, he is going to fold a small set.  If he is holding Kings he is going to fold on the flop with an ace on board and your bet.  MOST of the time, your opponent will fold on the flop or turn if they have the stats outlined above and the hand falls as outlined above.  There is no reason for them to contribute money into the pot no matter WHAT they have or what they think you have because you are betting correctly for made hand and we know they did not enter with a strong hand nor did it develop strongly based on their bet pattern coming back to you.  Since they also have a low FLcSDc you know they will be folding without seeing the showdown rather than risk losing more or all of their money if you really do have an Ace.

 

This is how you setup a bluff steal to build a pot in a low stakes cash game to make it worthwhile to steal.  You will be succesful often enough with these moves to offset the times you must fold your attempt.  If you run into aggression do not try and stay with it, just bail out and take the smaller loss.  To be more succesful, study your oppnonents and select the right person based on stats that will give you the best chance for success.  Also, do not over play this by using it too often.  If you have been getting a good run on cards and have played quite a few hands, do not even attempt a bluff steal.  While some players may shy away from a player that is on a streak, unless those hands went to showdown then they don't know if you really won or stole it.  If cards are cooperating, then you don't need to setup a move like this.  Use it sparingly and when caught using it, stop for a LONG time in this game or do not use it again in the same game and start over at another table.  One thing to keep in mind, if you are NEVER caught stealing, then you aren't stealing enough.

 

The above is only ONE scenario but can be changed around for any seat and any cards or board.  Just watch what your opponents do showdown with and how they bet.  Study their stats in POKER-EDGE to make your selections and choose wisely.

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